ADM Archer Daniels Midland
fair · 58
Owner-earnings value$52.61
Price$85.18
Margin of safety
-38.2%
Quality gate · 58/100
Median ROIC10.4%
Gross margin6.9%
Net debt / EBITDA2.3x
FCF conversion99%
Share count / yr-4.3%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 1.68B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 4.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.1% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 0.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 11.6% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.68B | 0.0% | 1.54B |
| 2 | 1.68B | 0.3% | 1.42B |
| 3 | 1.69B | 0.7% | 1.31B |
| 4 | 1.71B | 1.0% | 1.21B |
| 5 | 1.73B | 1.3% | 1.13B |
| 6 | 1.76B | 1.7% | 1.05B |
| 7 | 1.80B | 2.0% | 983.40M |
| 8 | 1.84B | 2.3% | 923.25M |
| 9 | 1.89B | 2.7% | 869.61M |
| 10 | 1.95B | 3.0% | 821.74M |
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⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~12%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 0%.