AES AES Corporation
too hard · 22
Owner-earnings value$19.89
Price$14.93
Margin of safety
+33.2%
Quality gate · 22/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 5% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 7.5x > 4x)
Median ROIC4.7%
Gross margin20.3%
Net debt / EBITDA7.5x
FCF conversion-558%
Share count / yr+2.1%
Profitable years3/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 1.87B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 17.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -16.2% |
| Growth used (normalized) | -14.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | -20.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.6% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.61B | -14.0% | 1.47B |
| 2 | 1.41B | -12.1% | 1.18B |
| 3 | 1.27B | -10.2% | 965.89M |
| 4 | 1.16B | -8.3% | 808.13M |
| 5 | 1.09B | -6.4% | 690.06M |
| 6 | 1.04B | -4.6% | 601.14M |
| 7 | 1.01B | -2.7% | 534.05M |
| 8 | 1.00B | -0.8% | 483.65M |
| 9 | 1.02B | 1.1% | 446.34M |
| 10 | 1.05B | 3.0% | 419.61M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~-20%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits -14%. Capped at market + 6pts.