AMCR Amcor
too hard · 40
Owner-earnings value$53.65
Price$41.72
Margin of safety
+28.6%
Quality gate · 40/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 8% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 4.0x > 4x)
Median ROIC8.3%
Gross margin20.0%
Net debt / EBITDA4.0x
FCF conversion106%
Share count / yr+16.9%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 1.23B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 6.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.4% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 6.9% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 0.9% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.31B | 6.9% | 1.20B |
| 2 | 1.40B | 6.4% | 1.18B |
| 3 | 1.48B | 6.0% | 1.14B |
| 4 | 1.56B | 5.6% | 1.11B |
| 5 | 1.64B | 5.1% | 1.07B |
| 6 | 1.72B | 4.7% | 1.03B |
| 7 | 1.80B | 4.3% | 982.42M |
| 8 | 1.87B | 3.9% | 936.07M |
| 9 | 1.93B | 3.4% | 888.22M |
| 10 | 1.99B | 3.0% | 839.33M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~1%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 7%. Capped at market + 6pts.