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AMZN Amazon

retail · 2026-10-27

N/A
fair · 65
Owner-earnings value$133.80
Price$249.09
Margin of safety -46.3%

Quality gate · 65/100

Returns on capital 20.9/30
Consistency 11.5/22
Margins / pricing power 13.7/16
Balance sheet 14.0/16
Cash conversion 2.3/10
Capital allocation 2.9/6
Median ROIC14.4%
Gross margin50.6%
Net debt / EBITDA0.3x
FCF conversion34%
Share count / yr+1.6%
Profitable years3/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)90.80B
Owner-earnings yield3.4%
Free-cash-flow yield-0.1%
Growth used (normalized)10.0%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)25.0%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)11.5%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
199.88B 10.0%89.55B
2109.09B 9.2%87.69B
3118.30B 8.4%85.25B
4127.37B 7.7%82.30B
5136.14B 6.9%78.87B
6144.46B 6.1%75.03B
7152.17B 5.3%70.85B
8159.10B 4.6%66.42B
9165.11B 3.8%61.80B
10170.07B 3.0%57.07B

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-27 65 $249.09 $133.80 -46.3% N/A
2026-09-18 65 $251.19 $135.42 -46.1% N/A
2026-08-12 65 $272.27 $139.10 -48.9% N/A
2026-07-06 66 $242.67 $142.51 -41.3% N/A
2026-07-02 66 $241.70 $144.12 -40.4% N/A
2026-06-29 66 $232.69 $146.09 -37.2% N/A
2026-06-25 66 $234.27 $145.51 -37.9% N/A
2026-06-23 66 $234.11 $143.78 -38.6% N/A