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APH Amphenol

technology · valued with codex-sub-gpt5.5 high conviction · 2026-07-09

HOLD
wonderful · 82 ▟ wide moat circle of competence: in ✓ would own for a decade trend up · +13.8% vs 200-DMA
Owner-earnings value$74.17
Price$158.22
Margin of safety -53.1%

Exceptional connector franchise, but even excellent execution cannot justify 23% growth for a decade.

The business

Amphenol designs and manufactures connectors, sensors, antennas, and cable systems that carry power and data inside electronic equipment. It earns money across diversified aerospace, defense, automotive, industrial, communications, and data-center markets, where reliability and rapid customization matter more than component cost alone.

Quality gate · 82/100

Returns on capital 22.8/30
Consistency 21.4/22
Margins / pricing power 10.7/16
Balance sheet 13.6/16
Cash conversion 10.0/10
Capital allocation 3.5/6
Median ROIC15.8%
Gross margin37.3%
Net debt / EBITDA0.6x
FCF conversion100%
Share count / yr+1.0%
Profitable years4/4

Moat & management

Moat ▟ wide moat
Sourceswitching costs
Trajectorywidening
Managementexcellent

Products designed into mission-critical systems require qualification and are costly to replace relative to their purchase price. Amphenol's engineering relationships, broad catalog, global manufacturing scale, and acquisitions deepen customer integration, although competition remains substantial.

Decentralized management, disciplined cost control, and a strong acquisition record have produced durable returns. The unusually large CommScope transaction and persistent modest dilution warrant scrutiny.

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)4.54B
Owner-earnings yield2.3%
Free-cash-flow yield2.4%
Growth used (normalized)9.0%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)22.6%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)10.2%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
14.95B 9.0%4.49B
25.37B 8.6%4.43B
35.81B 8.1%4.34B
46.26B 7.7%4.25B
56.71B 7.3%4.14B
67.17B 6.9%4.01B
77.63B 6.4%3.88B
88.09B 6.0%3.73B
98.54B 5.6%3.57B
108.98B 5.1%3.41B
119.40B 4.7%3.24B
129.81B 4.3%3.07B
1310.19B 3.9%2.89B
1410.53B 3.4%2.72B
1510.85B 3.0%2.54B

Key risks

  • AI infrastructure demand normalizes after heavy customer investment
  • CommScope integration or acquisition pricing damages returns on capital
  • Technological shifts, pricing pressure, or geopolitical supply-chain disruption

Catalysts

  • Rising electronic content and high-speed connectivity requirements
  • Successful CommScope integration and cross-selling

Recent news

score · 8 articles

  • Stocks To Watch: 14 Names Test And Tease New Buy Zones
  • Amphenol (APH) Could Be 11% Undervalued On AI Demand And CommScope Deal
  • Amphenol Rises 17% Year to Date: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?
  • Vertiv Expands in Malaysia to Boost AI Infrastructure: What's Ahead?
  • 2 Mooning Stocks with Solid Fundamentals and 1 We Turn Down
  • Can GLW's Next-Generation Automotive Solutions Drive Future Growth?
  • Is Amphenol Corporation (APH) A Good Stock To Buy Now?
  • These 7 Stocks Are Analyst Favorites For Magnificent Earnings Growth; Data Center Play Leads EPS Gauge

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~23%/yr owner-earnings growth over 15y (reverse DCF); model credits 9%. · Rich vs our conservative value, but a quality business is not a short — stance is WAIT for a better price, not sell.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-28 82 $78.21 $33.55 -57.1% HOLD
2026-10-27 82 $75.27 $33.55 -55.4% HOLD
2026-10-26 82 $74.09 $33.55 -54.7% HOLD
2026-10-23 82 $73.07 $33.55 -54.1% HOLD
2026-10-22 82 $79.20 $33.55 -57.6% HOLD
2026-10-21 82 $79.32 $33.55 -57.7% HOLD
2026-10-20 82 $80.28 $33.55 -58.2% HOLD
2026-10-19 82 $79.35 $33.55 -57.7% HOLD
2026-10-16 82 $81.49 $33.55 -58.8% HOLD
2026-10-15 82 $82.69 $33.55 -59.4% HOLD
2026-10-14 82 $85.89 $33.55 -60.9% HOLD
2026-10-13 82 $86.19 $33.55 -61.1% HOLD
2026-10-12 82 $87.24 $33.55 -61.5% HOLD
2026-10-09 82 $85.32 $33.55 -60.7% HOLD
2026-10-08 82 $87.55 $33.55 -61.7% HOLD
2026-10-07 82 $88.62 $33.55 -62.1% HOLD
2026-10-06 82 $87.27 $33.55 -61.6% HOLD
2026-10-05 82 $86.96 $33.55 -61.4% HOLD
2026-10-02 82 $85.67 $33.55 -60.8% HOLD
2026-10-01 82 $84.30 $33.55 -60.2% HOLD
2026-09-30 82 $84.34 $33.55 -60.2% HOLD
2026-09-29 82 $84.62 $72.13 -14.8% HOLD
2026-09-28 82 $84.09 $72.13 -14.2% HOLD
2026-09-25 82 $83.08 $72.13 -13.2% HOLD
2026-09-24 82 $82.19 $72.13 -12.2% HOLD
2026-09-23 82 $80.60 $72.13 -10.5% HOLD
2026-09-22 82 $80.72 $72.13 -10.6% HOLD
2026-09-21 82 $77.55 $72.13 -7.0% HOLD
2026-09-18 82 $78.37 $72.13 -8.0% HOLD
2026-09-17 82 $77.26 $72.13 -6.6% HOLD
2026-09-16 82 $77.65 $72.13 -7.1% HOLD
2026-09-15 82 $78.55 $72.13 -8.2% HOLD
2026-09-14 82 $83.92 $72.13 -14.0% HOLD
2026-09-11 82 $80.25 $72.13 -10.1% HOLD
2026-09-10 82 $81.34 $72.13 -11.3% HOLD
2026-09-09 82 $81.76 $72.13 -11.8% HOLD
2026-09-08 82 $82.78 $72.13 -12.9% HOLD
2026-09-07 82 $82.78 $72.13 -12.9% HOLD
2026-09-04 82 $158.55 $72.13 -54.5% HOLD
2026-09-03 82 $80.04 $72.13 -9.9% HOLD
2026-09-02 82 $151.20 $72.13 -52.3% HOLD
2026-09-01 82 $158.55 $72.13 -54.5% HOLD
2026-08-31 82 $157.74 $72.13 -54.3% HOLD
2026-08-28 82 $161.38 $72.13 -55.3% HOLD
2026-08-27 82 $161.34 $72.13 -55.3% HOLD
2026-08-26 82 $158.78 $72.13 -54.6% HOLD
2026-08-25 82 $155.55 $72.13 -53.6% HOLD
2026-08-24 82 $157.01 $72.13 -54.1% HOLD
2026-08-21 82 $153.11 $72.13 -52.9% HOLD
2026-08-20 82 $156.04 $72.13 -53.8% HOLD
2026-08-19 82 $159.57 $72.13 -54.8% HOLD
2026-08-18 82 $167.11 $74.17 -55.6% HOLD
2026-08-17 82 $167.11 $74.17 -55.6% HOLD
2026-08-14 82 $165.75 $74.17 -55.3% HOLD
2026-08-13 82 $169.96 $74.17 -56.4% HOLD
2026-08-12 82 $167.23 $74.17 -55.6% HOLD
2026-08-11 82 $167.70 $74.17 -55.8% HOLD
2026-08-10 82 $169.18 $74.17 -56.2% HOLD
2026-08-07 82 $170.61 $74.17 -56.5% HOLD
2026-08-06 82 $172.24 $74.17 -56.9% HOLD
2026-08-05 82 $171.33 $74.17 -56.7% HOLD
2026-08-04 82 $160.70 $74.17 -53.8% HOLD
2026-08-03 82 $160.70 $74.17 -53.8% HOLD
2026-07-31 82 $159.82 $74.17 -53.6% HOLD
2026-07-30 82 $150.31 $74.17 -50.7% HOLD
2026-07-29 82 $149.28 $74.17 -50.3% HOLD
2026-07-28 82 $149.28 $74.17 -50.3% HOLD
2026-07-27 82 $157.43 $74.17 -52.9% HOLD
2026-07-24 82 $157.43 $74.17 -52.9% HOLD
2026-07-23 82 $157.51 $74.17 -52.9% HOLD
2026-07-22 82 $157.81 $74.17 -53.0% HOLD
2026-07-21 82 $150.51 $74.17 -50.7% HOLD
2026-07-20 82 $151.20 $74.17 -50.9% HOLD
2026-07-17 82 $153.14 $74.17 -51.6% HOLD
2026-07-16 82 $157.04 $74.17 -52.8% HOLD
2026-07-15 82 $155.99 $74.17 -52.5% HOLD
2026-07-14 82 $155.99 $74.17 -52.5% HOLD
2026-07-13 82 $159.06 $74.17 -53.4% HOLD
2026-07-10 82 $162.24 $74.17 -54.3% HOLD
2026-07-09 82 $158.22 $74.17 -53.1% HOLD
2026-07-08 82 $158.61 $87.03 -45.1% HOLD
2026-07-07 82 $166.81 $87.03 -47.8% HOLD
2026-07-06 82 $164.59 $87.03 -47.1% HOLD
2026-07-03 82 $164.59 $87.03 -47.1% HOLD
2026-07-02 82 $172.22 $87.03 -49.5% HOLD
2026-06-25 82 $162.78 $70.67 -56.6% STRONG SELL
2026-06-23 82 $158.70 $69.74 -56.1% STRONG SELL