ATO Atmos Energy
too hard · 40
Owner-earnings value$147.50
Price$163.94
Margin of safety
-10.0%
Quality gate · 40/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 5% < 9%)
Median ROIC5.5%
Gross margin62.2%
Net debt / EBITDA3.4x
FCF conversion-90%
Share count / yr+4.7%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 1.40B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 5.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -7.3% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 3.8% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 6.4% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.46B | 3.8% | 1.34B |
| 2 | 1.51B | 3.7% | 1.27B |
| 3 | 1.57B | 3.6% | 1.21B |
| 4 | 1.62B | 3.6% | 1.15B |
| 5 | 1.68B | 3.5% | 1.09B |
| 6 | 1.73B | 3.4% | 1.03B |
| 7 | 1.79B | 3.3% | 979.46M |
| 8 | 1.85B | 3.2% | 927.19M |
| 9 | 1.90B | 3.1% | 876.94M |
| 10 | 1.96B | 3.0% | 828.67M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~6%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 4%.