AWK American Water Works
too hard · 37
Owner-earnings value$130.27
Price$127.38
Margin of safety
+2.3%
Quality gate · 37/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 6% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.2x > 4x)
Median ROIC5.9%
Gross margin61.3%
Net debt / EBITDA5.2x
FCF conversion-111%
Share count / yr+2.4%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 1.13B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 4.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -4.8% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 10.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 9.5% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.24B | 10.0% | 1.14B |
| 2 | 1.36B | 9.2% | 1.14B |
| 3 | 1.47B | 8.4% | 1.13B |
| 4 | 1.58B | 7.7% | 1.12B |
| 5 | 1.69B | 6.9% | 1.10B |
| 6 | 1.79B | 6.1% | 1.07B |
| 7 | 1.89B | 5.3% | 1.03B |
| 8 | 1.98B | 4.6% | 991.96M |
| 9 | 2.05B | 3.8% | 944.44M |
| 10 | 2.11B | 3.0% | 892.45M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~9%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.