❉ Buffybot wonderful businesses, fair prices

← back

BALL Ball Corporation

materials · 2026-10-14

N/A
too hard · 38
Owner-earnings value$43.40
Price$59.56
Margin of safety -27.1%

Quality gate · 38/100

Returns on capital 1.8/30
Consistency 17.8/22
Margins / pricing power 5.8/16
Balance sheet 6.7/16
Cash conversion 0/10
Capital allocation 6/6

⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 7% < 9%)

Median ROIC6.7%
Gross margin18.6%
Net debt / EBITDA2.7x
FCF conversion-2%
Share count / yr-5.5%
Profitable years4/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)827.00M
Owner-earnings yield5.2%
Free-cash-flow yield5.2%
Growth used (normalized)0.0%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)7.6%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)9.5%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
1827.00M 0.0%754.97M
2829.76M 0.3%691.50M
3835.29M 0.7%635.48M
4843.64M 1.0%585.93M
5854.89M 1.3%542.02M
6869.14M 1.7%503.06M
7886.52M 2.0%468.42M
8907.21M 2.3%437.60M
9931.40M 2.7%410.14M
10959.34M 3.0%385.64M

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~8%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 0%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-14 38 $59.56 $43.40 -27.1% N/A
2026-09-11 38 $59.74 $45.57 -23.7% N/A
2026-08-11 38 $62.58 $47.23 -24.5% N/A
2026-07-08 38 $62.66 $33.85 -46.0% N/A
2026-07-02 38 $61.75 $33.64 -45.5% N/A
2026-07-01 38 $62.40 $33.85 -45.8% N/A
2026-06-25 38 $60.98 $33.85 -44.5% N/A
2026-06-23 38 $60.49 $33.54 -44.6% N/A