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BLK BlackRock

capital_markets · valued with codex-sub-gpt5.5 high conviction · 2026-07-09

HOLD
good · 77 ▟ wide moat circle of competence: in trend down · -6.3% vs 200-DMA
Owner-earnings value$367.56
Price$990.34
Margin of safety -62.9%

A scaled financial tollbooth with durable advantages, but today’s price demands too much growth.

The business

BlackRock earns recurring fees by managing index funds, ETFs, active strategies, and private-market assets for institutions and individuals. It also sells Aladdin technology and related services, while revenue ultimately depends on assets under management, fee rates, and market levels.

Quality gate · 77/100

Returns on capital 19.1/30
Consistency 20.5/22
Margins / pricing power 14.7/16
Balance sheet 14.3/16
Cash conversion 5.0/10
Capital allocation 3.3/6
Median ROE13.6%
Gross margin46.8%
FCF conversion73%
Share count / yr+1.2%
Profitable years4/4

Moat & management

Moat ▟ wide moat
Sourcescale
Trajectorystable
Managementadequate

Enormous scale lowers operating and distribution costs, while iShares, institutional relationships, and Aladdin reinforce client retention. Fee compression and powerful competitors limit further widening.

Management has built dominant franchises and maintained sensible leverage, but recent acquisition-driven expansion and share-count growth warrant caution on price discipline and dilution.

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)6.25B
Owner-earnings yield3.9%
Free-cash-flow yield2.3%
Growth used (normalized)8.0%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)11.1%

Key risks

  • ETF and index-management fee compression
  • Market declines reducing assets and fee revenue
  • Overpaying for acquisitions and diluting shareholders

Catalysts

  • Continued migration toward ETFs and outsourced investment management
  • Successful integration and cross-selling of private-market acquisitions

Recent news

score · 8 articles

  • The World’s Biggest Investor Is Trimming AI Stocks. Should You Worry?
  • BlackRock is getting ready to report, and UBS likes what it sees
  • Sector Update: Financial Stocks Decline in Afternoon Trading
  • BlackRock's Q2 Results Seen Supported by Strong ETF Demand, UBS Securities Says
  • ETHA vs. IBIT: Does Ethereum or Bitcoin Belong in Your Portfolio?
  • BlackRock (BLK) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
  • This Strategist Sees the S&P 500 Hitting 8,500, and One Thing Changed Her Mind
  • SambaNova raises $1 billion Series F at $11 billion valuation

⚠ financial — owner earnings ≈ net income · financial — valued by residual income (ROE vs cost of equity on book equity) · Rich vs our conservative value, but a quality business is not a short — stance is WAIT for a better price, not sell.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-28 77 $1,136.05 $380.15 -66.5% HOLD
2026-10-27 77 $1,127.66 $380.15 -66.3% HOLD
2026-10-26 77 $1,118.25 $380.15 -66.0% HOLD
2026-10-23 77 $1,137.29 $380.15 -66.6% HOLD
2026-10-22 77 $1,149.60 $380.15 -66.9% HOLD
2026-10-21 77 $1,128.68 $380.15 -66.3% HOLD
2026-10-20 77 $1,124.60 $380.15 -66.2% HOLD
2026-10-19 77 $1,134.38 $380.15 -66.5% HOLD
2026-10-16 77 $1,120.78 $380.15 -66.1% HOLD
2026-10-15 77 $1,073.79 $380.15 -64.6% HOLD
2026-10-14 77 $1,066.12 $380.15 -64.3% HOLD
2026-10-13 77 $1,083.92 $380.15 -64.9% HOLD
2026-10-12 77 $1,082.39 $380.15 -64.9% HOLD
2026-10-09 77 $1,065.35 $380.15 -64.3% HOLD
2026-10-08 77 $1,069.63 $380.15 -64.5% HOLD
2026-10-07 77 $1,079.42 $380.15 -64.8% HOLD
2026-10-06 77 $1,066.45 $380.15 -64.4% HOLD
2026-10-05 77 $1,059.63 $380.15 -64.1% HOLD
2026-10-02 77 $1,064.36 $380.15 -64.3% HOLD
2026-10-01 77 $1,058.29 $380.15 -64.1% HOLD
2026-09-30 77 $1,067.94 $380.15 -64.4% HOLD
2026-09-29 77 $1,071.25 $380.15 -64.5% HOLD
2026-09-28 77 $1,086.31 $380.15 -65.0% HOLD
2026-09-25 77 $1,073.45 $380.15 -64.6% HOLD
2026-09-24 77 $1,060.89 $380.15 -64.2% HOLD
2026-09-23 77 $1,066.66 $380.15 -64.4% HOLD
2026-09-22 77 $1,090.27 $396.14 -63.7% HOLD
2026-09-21 77 $1,069.78 $396.14 -63.0% HOLD
2026-09-18 77 $1,053.96 $396.14 -62.4% HOLD
2026-09-17 77 $1,037.24 $396.14 -61.8% HOLD
2026-09-16 77 $1,058.66 $396.14 -62.6% HOLD
2026-09-15 77 $1,065.60 $396.14 -62.8% HOLD
2026-09-14 77 $1,079.65 $396.14 -63.3% HOLD
2026-09-11 77 $1,062.40 $396.14 -62.7% HOLD
2026-09-10 77 $1,072.03 $396.14 -63.0% HOLD
2026-09-09 77 $1,095.37 $396.14 -63.8% HOLD
2026-09-08 77 $1,122.29 $396.14 -64.7% HOLD
2026-09-07 77 $1,122.29 $396.14 -64.7% HOLD
2026-09-04 77 $1,126.15 $396.14 -64.8% HOLD
2026-09-03 77 $1,107.08 $396.14 -64.2% HOLD
2026-09-02 77 $1,128.10 $396.14 -64.9% HOLD
2026-09-01 77 $1,155.61 $396.14 -65.7% HOLD
2026-08-31 77 $1,164.48 $396.14 -66.0% HOLD
2026-08-28 77 $1,167.57 $396.14 -66.1% HOLD
2026-08-27 77 $1,173.21 $396.14 -66.2% HOLD
2026-08-26 77 $1,176.64 $396.14 -66.3% HOLD
2026-08-25 77 $1,172.61 $396.14 -66.2% HOLD
2026-08-24 77 $1,156.55 $396.14 -65.7% HOLD
2026-08-21 77 $1,139.82 $396.14 -65.2% HOLD
2026-08-20 77 $1,158.92 $396.14 -65.8% HOLD
2026-08-19 77 $1,154.35 $396.14 -65.7% HOLD
2026-08-18 77 $1,173.73 $396.14 -66.2% HOLD
2026-08-17 77 $1,173.73 $396.14 -66.2% HOLD
2026-08-14 77 $1,182.84 $367.56 -68.9% HOLD
2026-08-13 77 $1,160.91 $367.56 -68.3% HOLD
2026-08-12 77 $1,148.84 $367.56 -68.0% HOLD
2026-08-11 77 $1,131.40 $367.56 -67.5% HOLD
2026-08-10 77 $1,136.39 $367.56 -67.7% HOLD
2026-08-07 77 $1,129.30 $367.56 -67.5% HOLD
2026-08-06 77 $1,133.58 $367.56 -67.6% HOLD
2026-08-05 77 $1,131.13 $367.56 -67.5% HOLD
2026-08-04 77 $1,090.39 $367.56 -66.3% HOLD
2026-08-03 77 $1,090.39 $367.56 -66.3% HOLD
2026-07-31 77 $1,098.37 $367.56 -66.5% HOLD
2026-07-30 77 $1,079.19 $367.56 -65.9% HOLD
2026-07-29 77 $1,062.14 $367.56 -65.4% HOLD
2026-07-28 77 $1,062.14 $367.56 -65.4% HOLD
2026-07-27 77 $1,037.16 $367.56 -64.6% HOLD
2026-07-24 77 $1,037.16 $367.56 -64.6% HOLD
2026-07-23 77 $1,056.63 $367.56 -65.2% HOLD
2026-07-22 77 $1,038.24 $367.56 -64.6% HOLD
2026-07-21 77 $1,054.11 $367.56 -65.1% HOLD
2026-07-20 77 $1,072.20 $367.56 -65.7% HOLD
2026-07-17 77 $1,087.05 $367.56 -66.2% HOLD
2026-07-16 77 $1,093.40 $367.56 -66.4% HOLD
2026-07-15 77 $1,031.56 $367.56 -64.4% HOLD
2026-07-14 77 $1,031.56 $367.56 -64.4% HOLD
2026-07-13 77 $1,036.11 $367.56 -64.5% HOLD
2026-07-10 77 $1,019.68 $367.56 -64.0% HOLD
2026-07-09 77 $990.34 $367.56 -62.9% HOLD
2026-07-08 77 $1,009.43 $374.48 -62.9% HOLD
2026-07-07 77 $1,011.21 $374.48 -63.0% HOLD
2026-07-06 77 $995.73 $374.48 -62.4% HOLD
2026-07-03 77 $995.73 $374.48 -62.4% HOLD
2026-07-02 77 $980.38 $374.48 -61.8% HOLD
2026-06-25 80 $982.60 $378.66 -61.5% STRONG SELL
2026-06-23 80 $1,015.33 $373.46 -63.2% STRONG SELL