CEG Constellation Energy

utility · 2026-10-09

N/A

too hard · 44

Owner-earnings value$11.54

Price$285.07

Margin of safety -96.0%

Returns on capital 11.7/30

Consistency 9.1/22

Margins / pricing power 4.8/16

Balance sheet 13.3/16

Cash conversion 0/10

Capital allocation 5.6/6

Median ROIC10.4%

Gross margin21.4%

Net debt / EBITDA0.7x

FCF conversion-206%

Share count / yr-1.5%

Profitable years3/4

Owner earnings (TTM)	309.00M
Owner-earnings yield	0.3%
Free-cash-flow yield	0.3%
Growth used (normalized)	1.5%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)	25.0%
Terminal growth	3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)	10.3%

Yr	Owner earnings	Growth	PV
1	313.54M	1.5%	284.23M
2	318.68M	1.6%	261.89M
3	324.44M	1.8%	241.70M
4	330.87M	2.0%	223.44M
5	337.98M	2.1%	206.91M
6	345.82M	2.3%	191.92M
7	354.43M	2.5%	178.31M
8	363.85M	2.7%	165.94M
9	374.15M	2.8%	154.69M
10	385.38M	3.0%	144.44M

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 1%.

Date	Quality	Price	Value	MoS	Rating
2026-10-09	44	$285.07	$11.54	-96.0%	N/A
2026-08-28	44	$282.41	$12.58	-95.5%	N/A
2026-07-17	45	$251.77	$46.53	-81.5%	N/A
2026-07-02	45	$236.50	$48.18	-79.6%	N/A
2026-06-25	45	$267.97	$48.73	-81.8%	N/A
2026-06-23	45	$270.26	$48.05	-82.2%	N/A