CHRW C.H. Robinson
A scaled, improving broker, but a narrow moat cannot justify 22% implied growth.
The business
C.H. Robinson is an asset-light freight broker that matches shippers with third-party carriers and earns the spread between customer charges and transportation costs. It also provides managed logistics and international forwarding services. Profitability depends on shipment volumes, pricing discipline, carrier capacity, and operating efficiency.
Quality gate · 76/100
Moat & management
| Moat | narrow moat |
| Source | scale |
| Trajectory | stable |
| Management | adequate |
Its enormous carrier network, customer base, shipment data, and purchasing scale improve service and cost discovery. However, customers face modest switching costs, brokerage remains fragmented, and digital competitors constrain pricing power.
Management has materially improved productivity, margins, and portfolio focus through Lean AI and divestitures. Debt is manageable, but substantial repurchases at today's demanding valuation weaken the capital-allocation record.
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 631.56M |
| Owner-earnings yield | 2.7% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.4% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 6.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 22.1% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 669.46M | 6.0% | 614.18M |
| 2 | 707.39M | 5.7% | 595.40M |
| 3 | 745.12M | 5.3% | 575.37M |
| 4 | 782.38M | 5.0% | 554.26M |
| 5 | 818.89M | 4.7% | 532.22M |
| 6 | 854.37M | 4.3% | 509.43M |
| 7 | 888.55M | 4.0% | 486.07M |
| 8 | 921.13M | 3.7% | 462.28M |
| 9 | 951.83M | 3.3% | 438.25M |
| 10 | 980.39M | 3.0% | 414.13M |
Key risks
- Digital disintermediation and intense price competition compress brokerage spreads
- Freight-cycle volatility causes lasting volume or margin pressure
- Overpaying for acquisitions or repurchasing richly valued shares destroys capital
Catalysts
- Lean AI automation produces durable operating leverage
- Market-share gains compound when freight demand normalizes
Recent news
score · 8 articles
- 3 Unpopular Stocks We Approach with Caution
- C.H. Robinson Earnings Preview: What to Expect
- The Questions That Defined FDX's Earnings Call
- Montgomery lawsuit likely headed back to Illinois district court
- 3 Overrated Stocks We Find Risky
- Is C.H. Robinson (CHRW) Shifting From Defensive Mainstay To Growth-Focused, AI-Driven Scale Story?
- C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) Stock Looks Rich As It Absorbs $75m Logistics Deal
- Has CSX (CSX) Outpaced Other Transportation Stocks This Year?
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~22%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 6%. · Rich vs our conservative value, but a quality business is not a short — stance is WAIT for a better price, not sell.