CIEN Ciena
too hard · 59
Owner-earnings value$75.73
Price$379.14
Margin of safety
-80.0%
Quality gate · 59/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 5% < 9%)
Median ROIC4.8%
Gross margin44.1%
Net debt / EBITDA0.6x
FCF conversion138%
Share count / yr-1.7%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 654.41M |
| Owner-earnings yield | 1.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.5% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 9.5% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 25.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 11.1% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 716.58M | 9.5% | 644.83M |
| 2 | 779.49M | 8.8% | 631.20M |
| 3 | 842.28M | 8.1% | 613.75M |
| 4 | 904.05M | 7.3% | 592.80M |
| 5 | 963.82M | 6.6% | 568.71M |
| 6 | 1.02B | 5.9% | 541.90M |
| 7 | 1.07B | 5.2% | 512.83M |
| 8 | 1.12B | 4.4% | 481.99M |
| 9 | 1.16B | 3.7% | 449.87M |
| 10 | 1.20B | 3.0% | 416.97M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.