CMCSA Comcast
Cash-rich cable engine with an eroding moat; cheap, but growth is genuinely stalling.
The business
Comcast makes money three ways: residential and business broadband/cable connectivity (its cash engine), the NBCUniversal media segment (film studios, broadcast/cable networks, streaming via Peacock), and theme parks. Broadband is the crown jewel — high-margin recurring subscriptions over an owned last-mile network. The rest is more cyclical and competitive.
Quality gate · 70/100
Moat & management
| Moat | narrow moat |
| Source | cost advantage |
| Trajectory | eroding |
| Management | adequate |
The cable-plant infrastructure is a local low-cost/scale advantage that is real but under sustained assault: fiber overbuilders and fixed-wireless (T-Mobile/Verizon) are stealing marginal broadband adds, while cord-cutting and streaming economics steadily erode the video and NBCU businesses.
Disciplined dividend growth and heavy buybacks (~5% annual share shrink) are shareholder-friendly, but large content/park capital bets and the NBCU spinoff signal an empire that's now being pruned rather than compounded at high incremental returns.
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 17.72B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 21.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 21.1% |
| Growth used (normalized) | -14.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | -20.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15.24B | -14.0% | 13.98B |
| 2 | 13.39B | -12.1% | 11.27B |
| 3 | 12.02B | -10.2% | 9.28B |
| 4 | 11.02B | -8.3% | 7.81B |
| 5 | 10.31B | -6.4% | 6.70B |
| 6 | 9.84B | -4.6% | 5.87B |
| 7 | 9.58B | -2.7% | 5.24B |
| 8 | 9.50B | -0.8% | 4.77B |
| 9 | 9.61B | 1.1% | 4.42B |
| 10 | 9.90B | 3.0% | 4.18B |
Key risks
- Fixed-wireless and fiber overbuilders capping/reversing broadband subscriber growth
- Structural decline of linear video and pay-TV bundle economics
- Peacock/streaming cash burn and content-cost arms race with scaled players
Catalysts
- NBCUniversal spinoff simplifying the story and unlocking the broadband cash engine
- Broadband ARPU growth and cost cuts offsetting flat subscriber counts
Recent news
score · 8 articles
- Fox Buys Roku, and Now Comcast Is Spinning Off NBCUniversal. Does Netflix Need to Make a Big Move This Summer?
- Comcast Earnings Will Take Focus Off ‘The Odyssey’ and NBCUniversal Spinoff
- Charter Stock Might Not Be ‘Starlink Roadkill’ as SpaceX Threat Dims
- What Wall Street Pushed NFLX To Explain
- Does AT&T Stock Follow Its Own Path?
- Comcast (CMCSA) Eyes Letterboxd, Is The Stock Cheap?
- Alphabet, IBM, Tesla Earnings: What to Watch the Rest of the Week
- What To Expect From Comcast’s (CMCSA) Q2 Earnings
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~-20%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits -14%. Capped at market + 6pts. · Cheap, but still in a downtrend (down (-11% vs 200-DMA, 6m -17%)) — waiting for the trend to turn before buying (don't catch a falling knife).