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CVNA Carvana

auto · 2026-10-28

N/A
too hard · 22
Owner-earnings value$15.73
Price$59.23
Margin of safety -73.4%

Quality gate · 22/100

Returns on capital 0/30
Consistency 7.5/22
Margins / pricing power 4.8/16
Balance sheet 0/16
Cash conversion 10/10
Capital allocation 0/6

⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 3% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 22.5x > 4x)

Median ROIC3.1%
Gross margin19.4%
Net debt / EBITDA22.5x
FCF conversion124%
Share count / yr+10.3%
Profitable years3/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)929.00M
Owner-earnings yield1.4%
Free-cash-flow yield1.4%
Growth used (normalized)10.0%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)25.0%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)14.0%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
11.02B 10.0%896.46M
21.12B 9.2%858.94M
31.21B 8.4%817.13M
41.30B 7.7%771.78M
51.39B 6.9%723.69M
61.48B 6.1%673.65M
71.56B 5.3%622.47M
81.63B 4.6%570.94M
91.69B 3.8%519.77M
101.74B 3.0%469.65M

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-28 22 $59.23 $15.73 -73.4% N/A
2026-10-15 22 $57.96 $15.44 -73.4% N/A
2026-10-02 22 $63.04 $15.37 -75.6% N/A
2026-09-21 22 $65.11 $15.72 -75.9% N/A
2026-09-08 22 $74.59 $16.05 -78.5% N/A
2026-08-26 22 $75.77 $10.66 -85.9% N/A
2026-08-12 22 $72.00 $10.61 -85.3% N/A
2026-07-30 32 $66.32 $13.06 -80.3% N/A
2026-07-17 32 $70.66 $13.13 -81.4% N/A
2026-07-07 32 $70.38 $13.24 -81.2% N/A
2026-07-02 32 $67.87 $13.25 -80.5% N/A
2026-06-30 32 $63.72 $13.39 -79.0% N/A
2026-06-25 32 $67.91 $13.35 -80.3% N/A
2026-06-23 32 $64.83 $13.23 -79.6% N/A