CVS CVS Health
too hard · 40
Owner-earnings value$104.03
Price$92.53
Margin of safety
+12.4%
Quality gate · 40/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 5% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.3x > 4x)
Median ROIC5.2%
Gross margin14.2%
Net debt / EBITDA5.3x
FCF conversion199%
Share count / yr-0.8%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 6.39B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 5.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.9% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 7.6% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 4.8% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.88B | 7.6% | 6.31B |
| 2 | 7.37B | 7.1% | 6.20B |
| 3 | 7.85B | 6.6% | 6.06B |
| 4 | 8.33B | 6.1% | 5.90B |
| 5 | 8.80B | 5.6% | 5.72B |
| 6 | 9.24B | 5.1% | 5.51B |
| 7 | 9.66B | 4.5% | 5.28B |
| 8 | 10.05B | 4.0% | 5.04B |
| 9 | 10.40B | 3.5% | 4.79B |
| 10 | 10.72B | 3.0% | 4.53B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~5%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 8%.