DAL Delta Air Lines
fair · 65
Owner-earnings value$71.60
Price$81.45
Margin of safety
-12.1%
Quality gate · 65/100
Median ROIC14.9%
Gross margin21.4%
Net debt / EBITDA2.1x
FCF conversion55%
Share count / yr+0.6%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 3.02B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 5.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.6% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 7.8% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 11.1% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 11.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.26B | 7.8% | 2.93B |
| 2 | 3.49B | 7.3% | 2.84B |
| 3 | 3.73B | 6.7% | 2.73B |
| 4 | 3.96B | 6.2% | 2.61B |
| 5 | 4.19B | 5.7% | 2.48B |
| 6 | 4.40B | 5.1% | 2.35B |
| 7 | 4.60B | 4.6% | 2.22B |
| 8 | 4.79B | 4.1% | 2.08B |
| 9 | 4.96B | 3.5% | 1.94B |
| 10 | 5.11B | 3.0% | 1.80B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~11%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 8%.