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DG Dollar General

consumer_staples · 2026-09-30

N/A
too hard · 65
Owner-earnings value$138.95
Price$122.64
Margin of safety +13.3%

Quality gate · 65/100

Returns on capital 18.6/30
Consistency 18.7/22
Margins / pricing power 9.2/16
Balance sheet 5.2/16
Cash conversion 8.6/10
Capital allocation 4.3/6

⚠ over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 4.1x > 4x)

Median ROIC13.3%
Gross margin31.2%
Net debt / EBITDA4.2x
FCF conversion77%
Share count / yr+0.2%
Profitable years4/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)1.70B
Owner-earnings yield6.3%
Free-cash-flow yield7.4%
Growth used (normalized)4.1%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)1.2%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)9.0%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
11.77B 4.1%1.63B
21.84B 4.0%1.55B
31.92B 3.9%1.48B
41.99B 3.8%1.41B
52.06B 3.6%1.34B
62.13B 3.5%1.27B
72.20B 3.4%1.21B
82.28B 3.3%1.14B
92.35B 3.1%1.08B
102.42B 3.0%1.02B

Recent news

score · 8 articles

  • Dollar General (DG) After Instacart Delivery Push Has A Modest Undervalued Narrative
  • 96-year-old supermarket chain shutters 18 dollar stores
  • Dollar General (DG) Brings Same Day Delivery to Thousands of Stores Nationwide
  • How Tariff Refunds Strengthened Dollar General's Q2 Results
  • Dollar General makes changes to cut shoplifting, shrink
  • The Stock Market Faces a Triple Threat. It Can Emerge Victorious.
  • 3 S&P 500 Stocks We Think Twice About
  • Halloween Spending Expected to Set Record. Bargain-Hunting Dominates.

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~1%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 4%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-09-30 65 $122.64 $138.95 +13.3% N/A
2026-08-21 64 $120.58 $127.64 +5.9% N/A
2026-07-14 64 $123.44 $127.64 +3.4% N/A
2026-07-02 64 $115.20 $127.64 +10.8% N/A
2026-06-25 64 $119.17 $127.64 +7.1% N/A
2026-06-23 64 $114.58 $127.64 +11.4% N/A