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EOG EOG Resources

energy · valued with codex-sub-gpt5.6 medium conviction · 2026-07-14

HOLD
wonderful · 90 ▟ narrow moat circle of competence: edge trend up · +15.6% vs 200-DMA
Owner-earnings value$127.82
Price$139.61
Margin of safety -8.4%

Best-in-class operator, but depletion and commodity dependence make the price's growth expectations demanding.

The business

EOG explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural-gas liquids, earning commodity-linked revenue from its wells. Its economics depend on drilling productivity, low operating costs, disciplined reinvestment, and energy prices that management cannot control. The operating model is understandable, but decade-long cash flows remain inherently unpredictable.

Quality gate · 90/100

Returns on capital 27.5/30
Consistency 19.2/22
Margins / pricing power 15.3/16
Balance sheet 13.9/16
Cash conversion 8.5/10
Capital allocation 5.8/6
Median ROIC21.8%
Gross margin62.9%
Net debt / EBITDA0.4x
FCF conversion77%
Share count / yr-2.9%
Profitable years4/4

Moat & management

Moat ▟ narrow moat
Sourcecost advantage
Trajectorystable
Managementexcellent

High-quality acreage, proprietary geological knowledge, scale, and operating discipline support lower costs than many peers. However, EOG remains a price taker, and its best drilling inventory is finite, preventing a wide moat.

Management has historically emphasized high-return drilling, balance-sheet strength, dividends, and share repurchases rather than growth at any price. The declining share count and modest leverage support an owner-oriented assessment.

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)3.97B
Owner-earnings yield5.3%
Free-cash-flow yield5.3%
Growth used (normalized)3.0%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)4.5%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)9.0%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
14.08B 3.0%3.75B
24.21B 3.0%3.54B
34.33B 3.0%3.35B
44.46B 3.0%3.16B
54.60B 3.0%2.99B
64.74B 3.0%2.82B
74.88B 3.0%2.67B
85.02B 3.0%2.52B
95.17B 3.0%2.38B
105.33B 3.0%2.25B
115.49B 3.0%2.13B
125.65B 3.0%2.01B
135.82B 3.0%1.90B
146.00B 3.0%1.80B
156.18B 3.0%1.70B

Key risks

  • Sustained weakness in oil and natural-gas prices
  • Depletion of premium drilling inventory and declining well productivity
  • Poorly timed acquisitions, regulation, or capital-intensive energy transition pressures

Catalysts

  • Continued productivity gains and replacement of premium drilling inventory
  • Higher commodity prices enabling greater free-cash-flow distributions

Recent news

score · 8 articles

  • Can CRGY's Cash Flow Centric Business Model Support Future Growth?
  • The S&P 500 Is Up 5% This Year. This ‘Cash Cow’ Fund Is Up 9%
  • Crescent Energy Stock Rises 18% in 6 Months: Time to Buy or Stay?
  • Does EOG Resources’ (EOG) Index Exit Reveal More About Its Capital Discipline Than Its Prospects?
  • EOG Resources (EOG) On Encino Deal Optimism And What It Means For Valuation
  • EOG Resources (EOG) Stock Still Looks Below Fair Value Today
  • JEPI vs. JEPQ: Which Is the Better Buy in July?
  • Occidental Is Winning in Multiple Ways Today

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~5%/yr owner-earnings growth over 15y (reverse DCF); model credits 3%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-28 90 $161.10 $107.42 -33.3% HOLD
2026-10-27 90 $163.68 $107.42 -34.4% HOLD
2026-10-26 90 $163.03 $107.42 -34.1% HOLD
2026-10-23 90 $157.96 $107.42 -32.0% HOLD
2026-10-22 90 $157.88 $107.42 -32.0% HOLD
2026-10-21 90 $157.91 $127.82 -19.1% HOLD
2026-10-20 90 $157.65 $127.82 -18.9% HOLD
2026-10-19 90 $158.01 $127.82 -19.1% HOLD
2026-10-16 90 $152.62 $127.82 -16.2% HOLD
2026-10-15 90 $154.19 $127.82 -17.1% HOLD
2026-10-14 90 $153.17 $127.82 -16.5% HOLD
2026-10-13 90 $150.51 $127.82 -15.1% HOLD
2026-10-12 90 $148.16 $127.82 -13.7% HOLD
2026-10-09 90 $148.51 $127.82 -13.9% HOLD
2026-10-08 90 $144.21 $127.82 -11.4% HOLD
2026-10-07 90 $144.28 $127.82 -11.4% HOLD
2026-10-06 90 $144.08 $127.82 -11.3% HOLD
2026-10-05 90 $141.38 $127.82 -9.6% HOLD
2026-10-02 90 $141.31 $127.82 -9.5% HOLD
2026-10-01 90 $137.76 $127.82 -7.2% HOLD
2026-09-30 90 $139.66 $127.82 -8.5% HOLD
2026-09-29 90 $140.63 $127.82 -9.1% HOLD
2026-09-28 90 $140.35 $127.82 -8.9% HOLD
2026-09-25 90 $142.86 $127.82 -10.5% HOLD
2026-09-24 90 $141.84 $127.82 -9.9% HOLD
2026-09-23 90 $141.38 $127.82 -9.6% HOLD
2026-09-22 90 $141.38 $127.82 -9.6% HOLD
2026-09-21 90 $144.23 $127.82 -11.4% HOLD
2026-09-18 90 $145.47 $127.82 -12.1% HOLD
2026-09-17 90 $144.93 $127.82 -11.8% HOLD
2026-09-16 90 $153.74 $127.82 -16.9% HOLD
2026-09-15 90 $148.54 $127.82 -13.9% HOLD
2026-09-14 90 $147.36 $127.82 -13.3% HOLD
2026-09-11 90 $147.46 $127.82 -13.3% HOLD
2026-09-10 90 $147.01 $127.82 -13.1% HOLD
2026-09-09 90 $145.36 $127.82 -12.1% HOLD
2026-09-08 90 $145.19 $127.82 -12.0% HOLD
2026-09-07 90 $145.19 $127.82 -12.0% HOLD
2026-09-04 90 $145.96 $127.82 -12.4% HOLD
2026-09-03 90 $148.96 $127.82 -14.2% HOLD
2026-09-02 90 $148.35 $127.82 -13.8% HOLD
2026-09-01 90 $144.96 $127.82 -11.8% HOLD
2026-08-31 90 $143.35 $127.82 -10.8% HOLD
2026-08-28 90 $144.50 $127.82 -11.5% HOLD
2026-08-27 90 $144.84 $127.82 -11.7% HOLD
2026-08-26 90 $146.83 $127.82 -12.9% HOLD
2026-08-25 90 $150.21 $127.82 -14.9% HOLD
2026-08-24 90 $153.05 $127.82 -16.5% HOLD
2026-08-21 90 $152.19 $127.82 -16.0% HOLD
2026-08-20 90 $149.48 $127.82 -14.5% HOLD
2026-08-19 90 $148.70 $127.82 -14.0% HOLD
2026-08-18 90 $142.61 $127.82 -10.4% HOLD
2026-08-17 90 $142.61 $127.82 -10.4% HOLD
2026-08-14 90 $141.41 $127.82 -9.6% HOLD
2026-08-13 90 $143.14 $127.82 -10.7% HOLD
2026-08-12 90 $143.40 $127.82 -10.9% HOLD
2026-08-11 90 $142.22 $127.82 -10.1% HOLD
2026-08-10 90 $134.74 $127.82 -5.1% HOLD
2026-08-07 90 $136.20 $127.82 -6.1% HOLD
2026-08-06 90 $134.23 $127.82 -4.8% HOLD
2026-08-05 90 $143.52 $127.82 -10.9% HOLD
2026-08-04 90 $148.69 $127.82 -14.0% HOLD
2026-08-03 90 $148.69 $127.82 -14.0% HOLD
2026-07-31 90 $145.51 $127.82 -12.2% HOLD
2026-07-30 90 $145.94 $127.82 -12.4% HOLD
2026-07-29 90 $140.31 $127.82 -8.9% HOLD
2026-07-28 90 $140.31 $127.82 -8.9% HOLD
2026-07-27 90 $145.49 $127.82 -12.1% HOLD
2026-07-24 90 $145.49 $127.82 -12.1% HOLD
2026-07-23 90 $144.00 $127.82 -11.2% HOLD
2026-07-22 90 $143.44 $127.82 -10.9% HOLD
2026-07-21 90 $141.09 $127.82 -9.4% HOLD
2026-07-20 90 $139.89 $127.82 -8.6% HOLD
2026-07-17 90 $138.46 $127.82 -7.7% HOLD
2026-07-16 90 $137.47 $127.82 -7.0% HOLD
2026-07-15 90 $139.61 $127.82 -8.4% HOLD
2026-07-14 90 $139.61 $127.82 -8.4% HOLD
2026-07-13 90 $134.10 $107.42 -19.9% HOLD
2026-07-10 90 $133.54 $107.42 -19.6% HOLD
2026-07-09 90 $137.59 $107.42 -21.9% HOLD
2026-07-08 90 $134.54 $107.42 -20.2% HOLD
2026-07-07 90 $129.39 $107.42 -17.0% HOLD
2026-07-06 90 $130.78 $107.42 -17.9% HOLD
2026-07-03 90 $130.78 $107.42 -17.9% HOLD
2026-07-02 90 $128.59 $107.42 -16.5% HOLD
2026-06-25 90 $134.45 $112.59 -16.3% SELL
2026-06-23 90 $134.90 $112.59 -16.5% SELL