ESS Essex Property Trust
too hard · 53
Owner-earnings value$267.16
Price$270.39
Margin of safety
-1.2%
Quality gate · 53/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 7% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.2x > 4x)
Median ROIC6.7%
Gross margin67.9%
Net debt / EBITDA5.2x
FCF conversion158%
Share count / yr-0.1%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 900.34M |
| Owner-earnings yield | 4.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 5.3% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 5.5% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 5.8% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 949.95M | 5.5% | 871.52M |
| 2 | 999.65M | 5.2% | 841.38M |
| 3 | 1.05B | 5.0% | 810.14M |
| 4 | 1.10B | 4.7% | 777.99M |
| 5 | 1.15B | 4.4% | 745.11M |
| 6 | 1.19B | 4.1% | 711.73M |
| 7 | 1.24B | 3.8% | 678.01M |
| 8 | 1.28B | 3.6% | 644.16M |
| 9 | 1.33B | 3.3% | 610.35M |
| 10 | 1.37B | 3.0% | 576.75M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~6%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 6%.