EXC Exelon
too hard · 34
Owner-earnings value$57.07
Price$44.43
Margin of safety
+28.5%
Quality gate · 34/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 5% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.7x > 4x)
Median ROIC5.3%
Gross margin42.4%
Net debt / EBITDA5.7x
FCF conversion-90%
Share count / yr+0.9%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 2.78B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 6.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -4.2% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 8.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 2.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.01B | 8.0% | 2.76B |
| 2 | 3.23B | 7.4% | 2.72B |
| 3 | 3.45B | 6.9% | 2.66B |
| 4 | 3.67B | 6.3% | 2.60B |
| 5 | 3.88B | 5.8% | 2.52B |
| 6 | 4.08B | 5.2% | 2.43B |
| 7 | 4.27B | 4.7% | 2.34B |
| 8 | 4.45B | 4.1% | 2.23B |
| 9 | 4.61B | 3.6% | 2.12B |
| 10 | 4.74B | 3.0% | 2.00B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~2%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 8%. Capped at market + 6pts.