EXE Expand Energy
fair · 62
Owner-earnings value$121.41
Price$93.23
Margin of safety
+30.2%
Quality gate · 62/100
Median ROIC14.3%
Gross margin49.9%
Net debt / EBITDA0.7x
FCF conversion53%
Share count / yr+21.1%
Profitable years3/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 2.48B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 11.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 11.1% |
| Growth used (normalized) | -5.9% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | -11.9% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.33B | -5.9% | 2.14B |
| 2 | 2.22B | -4.9% | 1.87B |
| 3 | 2.13B | -3.9% | 1.64B |
| 4 | 2.07B | -2.9% | 1.46B |
| 5 | 2.03B | -1.9% | 1.32B |
| 6 | 2.01B | -1.0% | 1.20B |
| 7 | 2.01B | 0.0% | 1.10B |
| 8 | 2.03B | 1.0% | 1.02B |
| 9 | 2.07B | 2.0% | 952.47M |
| 10 | 2.13B | 3.0% | 900.04M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~-12%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits -6%. Capped at market + 6pts.