EXR Extra Space Storage
too hard · 45
Owner-earnings value$142.42
Price$133.74
Margin of safety
+6.5%
Quality gate · 45/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 6% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.8x > 4x)
Median ROIC5.9%
Gross margin70.6%
Net debt / EBITDA5.8x
FCF conversion180%
Share count / yr+16.4%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 1.64B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 5.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 6.2% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 10.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 8.4% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 10.5% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.81B | 10.0% | 1.64B |
| 2 | 1.98B | 9.2% | 1.62B |
| 3 | 2.14B | 8.4% | 1.59B |
| 4 | 2.31B | 7.7% | 1.55B |
| 5 | 2.47B | 6.9% | 1.50B |
| 6 | 2.62B | 6.1% | 1.44B |
| 7 | 2.76B | 5.3% | 1.37B |
| 8 | 2.88B | 4.6% | 1.30B |
| 9 | 2.99B | 3.8% | 1.22B |
| 10 | 3.08B | 3.0% | 1.14B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~8%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.