HLT Hilton Worldwide
too hard · 76
Owner-earnings value$133.89
Price$316.12
Margin of safety
-57.6%
Quality gate · 76/100
⚠ negative book equity
Median ROIC22.3%
Gross margin29.3%
Net debt / EBITDA3.9x
FCF conversion131%
Share count / yr-4.9%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 1.61B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 2.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.7% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 10.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 25.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 10.3% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.77B | 10.0% | 1.60B |
| 2 | 1.93B | 9.2% | 1.59B |
| 3 | 2.09B | 8.4% | 1.56B |
| 4 | 2.25B | 7.7% | 1.52B |
| 5 | 2.41B | 6.9% | 1.48B |
| 6 | 2.56B | 6.1% | 1.42B |
| 7 | 2.69B | 5.3% | 1.36B |
| 8 | 2.81B | 4.6% | 1.29B |
| 9 | 2.92B | 3.8% | 1.21B |
| 10 | 3.01B | 3.0% | 1.13B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.