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HRL Hormel Foods

consumer_staples · 2026-10-06

N/A
too hard · 52
Owner-earnings value$9.42
Price$20.08
Margin of safety -53.1%

Quality gate · 52/100

Returns on capital 3.3/30
Consistency 19.6/22
Margins / pricing power 6.0/16
Balance sheet 8.3/16
Cash conversion 10/10
Capital allocation 4.3/6

⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 7% < 9%)

Median ROIC7.2%
Gross margin15.7%
Net debt / EBITDA2.5x
FCF conversion103%
Share count / yr+0.2%
Profitable years4/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)342.71M
Owner-earnings yield3.1%
Free-cash-flow yield7.1%
Growth used (normalized)0.0%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)18.5%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)9.0%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
1342.71M 0.0%314.41M
2343.85M 0.3%289.41M
3346.15M 0.7%267.29M
4349.61M 1.0%247.67M
5354.27M 1.3%230.25M
6360.17M 1.7%214.76M
7367.38M 2.0%200.97M
8375.95M 2.3%188.68M
9385.97M 2.7%177.71M
10397.55M 3.0%167.93M

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~18%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 0%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-06 52 $20.08 $9.42 -53.1% N/A
2026-08-27 53 $23.71 $12.83 -45.9% N/A
2026-07-20 53 $25.39 $12.83 -49.5% N/A
2026-07-02 53 $24.88 $12.83 -48.4% N/A
2026-06-25 53 $25.55 $12.83 -49.8% N/A
2026-06-23 53 $24.72 $12.83 -48.1% N/A