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KDP Keurig Dr Pepper

beverage · 2026-10-27

N/A
too hard · 53
Owner-earnings value$27.76
Price$34.99
Margin of safety -20.7%

Quality gate · 53/100

Returns on capital 0/30
Consistency 20.6/22
Margins / pricing power 13.6/16
Balance sheet 3.7/16
Cash conversion 9.5/10
Capital allocation 5.5/6

⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 6% < 9%)

Median ROIC5.8%
Gross margin49.4%
Net debt / EBITDA3.5x
FCF conversion90%
Share count / yr-1.2%
Profitable years4/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)1.97B
Owner-earnings yield4.1%
Free-cash-flow yield4.1%
Growth used (normalized)5.7%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)11.3%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)9.0%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
12.08B 5.7%1.91B
22.19B 5.4%1.84B
32.30B 5.1%1.78B
42.41B 4.8%1.71B
52.52B 4.5%1.64B
62.63B 4.2%1.57B
72.73B 3.9%1.49B
82.83B 3.6%1.42B
92.92B 3.3%1.34B
103.01B 3.0%1.27B

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~11%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 6%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-27 53 $34.99 $27.76 -20.7% N/A
2026-10-14 53 $32.66 $27.76 -15.0% N/A
2026-10-01 53 $30.34 $27.76 -8.5% N/A
2026-09-18 53 $31.43 $27.76 -11.7% N/A
2026-09-07 53 $32.59 $27.76 -14.8% N/A
2026-08-25 54 $32.51 $22.26 -31.5% N/A
2026-08-11 54 $29.30 $22.27 -24.0% N/A
2026-07-29 54 $31.08 $22.27 -28.4% N/A
2026-07-16 54 $30.28 $22.27 -26.5% N/A
2026-07-06 54 $33.30 $22.27 -33.1% N/A
2026-07-02 54 $33.37 $22.27 -33.3% N/A
2026-06-29 54 $33.40 $22.27 -33.3% N/A
2026-06-25 54 $31.40 $22.27 -29.1% N/A
2026-06-23 54 $30.87 $22.27 -27.9% N/A