MAR Marriott International
too hard · 78
Owner-earnings value$173.96
Price$365.88
Margin of safety
-52.5%
Quality gate · 78/100
⚠ negative book equity
Median ROIC25.8%
Gross margin19.8%
Net debt / EBITDA3.3x
FCF conversion90%
Share count / yr-5.1%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 2.69B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 2.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.3% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 8.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 25.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 10.5% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.91B | 8.0% | 2.63B |
| 2 | 3.13B | 7.5% | 2.56B |
| 3 | 3.34B | 6.9% | 2.48B |
| 4 | 3.56B | 6.3% | 2.39B |
| 5 | 3.76B | 5.8% | 2.28B |
| 6 | 3.96B | 5.2% | 2.18B |
| 7 | 4.15B | 4.7% | 2.06B |
| 8 | 4.32B | 4.1% | 1.94B |
| 9 | 4.47B | 3.6% | 1.82B |
| 10 | 4.60B | 3.0% | 1.70B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 8%.