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MCD McDonald's

restaurant · 2026-10-26

N/A
too hard · 86
Owner-earnings value$205.27
Price$248.46
Margin of safety -17.4%

Quality gate · 86/100

Returns on capital 28.9/30
Consistency 21.4/22
Margins / pricing power 14.9/16
Balance sheet 5.6/16
Cash conversion 9.2/10
Capital allocation 5.5/6

⚠ negative book equity

Median ROIC26.3%
Gross margin57.4%
Net debt / EBITDA3.6x
FCF conversion85%
Share count / yr-0.9%
Profitable years4/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)7.76B
Owner-earnings yield4.4%
Free-cash-flow yield4.4%
Growth used (normalized)5.1%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)9.7%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)9.0%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
18.15B 5.1%7.48B
28.55B 4.8%7.19B
38.94B 4.6%6.90B
49.33B 4.4%6.61B
59.72B 4.1%6.32B
610.10B 3.9%6.02B
710.47B 3.7%5.73B
810.84B 3.5%5.44B
911.19B 3.2%5.15B
1011.52B 3.0%4.87B

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~10%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 5%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-26 86 $248.46 $205.27 -17.4% N/A
2026-10-12 86 $235.23 $205.27 -12.7% N/A
2026-09-29 86 $233.60 $205.27 -12.1% N/A
2026-09-15 86 $257.49 $205.27 -20.3% N/A
2026-09-01 86 $263.54 $205.27 -22.1% N/A
2026-08-18 86 $265.53 $205.27 -22.7% N/A
2026-08-04 85 $265.23 $185.43 -30.1% N/A
2026-07-21 85 $267.64 $185.43 -30.7% N/A
2026-07-08 85 $282.21 $185.43 -34.3% N/A
2026-07-02 85 $269.43 $185.43 -31.2% N/A
2026-07-01 85 $270.31 $185.43 -31.4% N/A
2026-06-25 85 $273.88 $185.43 -32.3% N/A
2026-06-23 85 $271.66 $185.43 -31.7% N/A