MGM MGM Resorts
too hard · 66
Owner-earnings value$34.65
Price$29.32
Margin of safety
+18.2%
Quality gate · 66/100
⚠ over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 14.7x > 4x)
Median ROIC13.8%
Gross margin44.2%
Net debt / EBITDA14.7x
FCF conversion152%
Share count / yr-12.0%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 542.85M |
| Owner-earnings yield | 7.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 20.3% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 10.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 5.8% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 11.3% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 597.14M | 10.0% | 536.42M |
| 2 | 652.21M | 9.2% | 526.31M |
| 3 | 707.28M | 8.4% | 512.72M |
| 4 | 761.51M | 7.7% | 495.89M |
| 5 | 813.97M | 6.9% | 476.16M |
| 6 | 863.71M | 6.1% | 453.88M |
| 7 | 909.77M | 5.3% | 429.47M |
| 8 | 951.22M | 4.6% | 403.38M |
| 9 | 987.15M | 3.8% | 376.05M |
| 10 | 1.02B | 3.0% | 347.94M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~6%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.