MSFT Microsoft
wonderful · 95
no moat
circle of competence: edge
trend down · -12.4% vs 200-DMA
Owner-earnings value$247.69
Price$381.58
Margin of safety
-35.1%
Model unavailable; showing baseline owner-earnings value.
Quality gate · 95/100
Median ROIC29.1%
Gross margin68.3%
Net debt / EBITDA0.1x
FCF conversion81%
Share count / yr-0.1%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
| Moat | no moat |
| Trajectory | stable |
| Management | adequate |
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 72.92B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 2.6% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.6% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 12.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 19.7% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.8% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 81.67B | 12.0% | 74.39B |
| 2 | 90.94B | 11.4% | 75.45B |
| 3 | 100.68B | 10.7% | 76.08B |
| 4 | 110.82B | 10.1% | 76.28B |
| 5 | 121.27B | 9.4% | 76.03B |
| 6 | 131.93B | 8.8% | 75.34B |
| 7 | 142.67B | 8.1% | 74.21B |
| 8 | 153.37B | 7.5% | 72.66B |
| 9 | 163.89B | 6.9% | 70.72B |
| 10 | 174.07B | 6.2% | 68.42B |
| 11 | 183.77B | 5.6% | 65.79B |
| 12 | 192.83B | 4.9% | 62.88B |
| 13 | 201.09B | 4.3% | 59.73B |
| 14 | 208.42B | 3.6% | 56.39B |
| 15 | 214.67B | 3.0% | 52.90B |
Recent news
score · 8 articles
- 2 reasons why Microsoft belongs in your portfolio: D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria
- Google, Amazon, Meta, & Microsoft will spend 'unprecedented' $1T on AI capex in 2027: Analyst
- IBM may be caught up in latest bout of AI volatility: 'Don't concentrate in any one theme'
- Google’s Earnings Could be a Bad Omen for Big Tech
- Investors Zero In on Runaway Tech Spending, Putting Dent in AI Trade
- ORCL Stock Rises After-Hours On Pentagon Deal Worth Up To $7B — Why Retail Sees NOW, PLTR, MSFT And Others Benefiting Too
- AMD's customer list keeps growing, and Nvidia should notice
- Amazon vs. Microsoft: Which Cloud Empire Is the Better Buy Now?
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~20%/yr owner-earnings growth over 15y (reverse DCF); model credits 12%. · Rich vs our conservative value, but a quality business is not a short — stance is WAIT for a better price, not sell.