NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
too hard · 24
Owner-earnings value$19.20
Price$15.32
Margin of safety
+25.4%
Quality gate · 24/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 7% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.1x > 4x)
Median ROIC7.1%
Gross margin42.5%
Net debt / EBITDA5.1x
Share count / yr+2.6%
Profitable years3/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 760.77M |
| Owner-earnings yield | 10.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -16.9% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 8.7% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 2.7% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 14.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 827.07M | 8.7% | 725.38M |
| 2 | 893.89M | 8.1% | 687.59M |
| 3 | 960.44M | 7.4% | 647.95M |
| 4 | 1.03B | 6.8% | 606.98M |
| 5 | 1.09B | 6.2% | 565.22M |
| 6 | 1.15B | 5.5% | 523.19M |
| 7 | 1.21B | 4.9% | 481.37M |
| 8 | 1.26B | 4.3% | 440.21M |
| 9 | 1.30B | 3.6% | 400.12M |
| 10 | 1.34B | 3.0% | 361.45M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~3%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 9%. Capped at market + 6pts.