ODFL Old Dominion
wonderful · 88
no moat
circle of competence: edge
trend down · -5.1% vs 200-DMA
Owner-earnings value$66.56
Price$185.75
Margin of safety
-64.2%
Model unavailable; showing baseline owner-earnings value.
Quality gate · 88/100
Median ROIC27.9%
Gross margin33.6%
Net debt / EBITDA-0.0x
FCF conversion74%
Share count / yr-1.8%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
| Moat | no moat |
| Trajectory | stable |
| Management | adequate |
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 1.11B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 2.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.9% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 0.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 18.4% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 10.1% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.11B | 0.0% | 1.01B |
| 2 | 1.11B | 0.2% | 919.92M |
| 3 | 1.12B | 0.4% | 839.43M |
| 4 | 1.13B | 0.6% | 767.61M |
| 5 | 1.14B | 0.9% | 703.44M |
| 6 | 1.15B | 1.1% | 646.00M |
| 7 | 1.16B | 1.3% | 594.50M |
| 8 | 1.18B | 1.5% | 548.27M |
| 9 | 1.20B | 1.7% | 506.71M |
| 10 | 1.22B | 1.9% | 469.28M |
| 11 | 1.25B | 2.1% | 435.52M |
| 12 | 1.28B | 2.4% | 405.05M |
| 13 | 1.31B | 2.6% | 377.49M |
| 14 | 1.35B | 2.8% | 352.55M |
| 15 | 1.39B | 3.0% | 329.94M |
Recent news
score · 8 articles
- Old Dominion Unveils Solid LTL Unit Performance for August
- J.B. Hunt, Other Freight Stocks Sliding as Diesel Prices Surge Toward Record High
- Old Dominion’s August: Some good, some OK
- Landstar EPS Estimates Northbound: How to Play the Stock Now?
- Why Is Old Dominion (ODFL) Down 5.8% Since Last Earnings Report?
- 1 Large-Cap Stock with Competitive Advantages and 2 We Find Risky
- Old Dominion EPS Estimates Northbound: How to Play the Stock?
- 3 Reasons to Sell ODFL and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Net cash 0.1B credited to value (interest stripped from owner earnings to avoid double-counting). · Price pays for ~18%/yr owner-earnings growth over 15y (reverse DCF); model credits 0%. · Rich vs our conservative value, but a quality business is not a short — stance is WAIT for a better price, not sell.