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ORLY O'Reilly Automotive

auto · 2026-10-21

N/A
too hard · 91
Owner-earnings value$54.66
Price$90.02
Margin of safety -39.3%

Quality gate · 91/100

Returns on capital 30/30
Consistency 20.7/22
Margins / pricing power 14.1/16
Balance sheet 10.6/16
Cash conversion 9.4/10
Capital allocation 5.9/6

⚠ negative book equity

Median ROIC63.6%
Gross margin51.6%
Net debt / EBITDA2.0x
FCF conversion87%
Share count / yr-3.5%
Profitable years4/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)2.16B
Owner-earnings yield3.0%
Free-cash-flow yield3.0%
Growth used (normalized)7.3%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)19.6%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)9.0%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
12.31B 7.3%2.12B
22.47B 6.8%2.08B
32.63B 6.3%2.03B
42.78B 5.8%1.97B
52.93B 5.4%1.90B
63.07B 4.9%1.83B
73.21B 4.4%1.75B
83.33B 3.9%1.67B
93.45B 3.5%1.59B
103.55B 3.0%1.50B

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~20%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 7%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-21 91 $90.02 $54.66 -39.3% N/A
2026-10-08 91 $84.61 $54.66 -35.4% N/A
2026-09-25 91 $86.24 $54.66 -36.6% N/A
2026-09-14 91 $85.82 $54.66 -36.3% N/A
2026-09-01 91 $88.80 $54.66 -38.5% N/A
2026-08-18 91 $90.23 $54.66 -39.4% N/A
2026-08-05 91 $91.83 $48.07 -47.6% N/A
2026-07-23 91 $86.53 $47.35 -45.3% N/A
2026-07-10 91 $85.12 $47.35 -44.4% N/A
2026-07-02 91 $92.69 $47.35 -48.9% N/A
2026-06-25 91 $87.82 $47.35 -46.1% N/A
2026-06-23 91 $87.54 $47.35 -45.9% N/A