PKG Packaging Corporation of America
fair · 62
Owner-earnings value$127.62
Price$229.26
Margin of safety
-44.3%
Quality gate · 62/100
Median ROIC11.9%
Gross margin20.1%
Net debt / EBITDA3.3x
FCF conversion82%
Share count / yr-0.2%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 691.70M |
| Owner-earnings yield | 3.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 3.6% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 2.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 16.2% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 705.33M | 2.0% | 647.10M |
| 2 | 720.04M | 2.1% | 606.05M |
| 3 | 735.88M | 2.2% | 568.24M |
| 4 | 752.91M | 2.3% | 533.38M |
| 5 | 771.20M | 2.4% | 501.23M |
| 6 | 790.81M | 2.5% | 471.53M |
| 7 | 811.82M | 2.7% | 444.09M |
| 8 | 834.32M | 2.8% | 418.72M |
| 9 | 858.39M | 2.9% | 395.23M |
| 10 | 884.15M | 3.0% | 373.47M |
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⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~16%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 2%.