RCL Royal Caribbean Group
fair · 53
Owner-earnings value$214.75
Price$277.68
Margin of safety
-22.7%
Quality gate · 53/100
Median ROIC13.9%
Gross margin49.1%
Net debt / EBITDA2.9x
FCF conversion24%
Share count / yr+1.9%
Profitable years3/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 4.40B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 5.9% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -0.6% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 10.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 16.9% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 13.3% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.84B | 10.0% | 4.27B |
| 2 | 5.28B | 9.2% | 4.12B |
| 3 | 5.73B | 8.4% | 3.94B |
| 4 | 6.17B | 7.7% | 3.74B |
| 5 | 6.59B | 6.9% | 3.53B |
| 6 | 7.00B | 6.1% | 3.31B |
| 7 | 7.37B | 5.3% | 3.08B |
| 8 | 7.71B | 4.6% | 2.84B |
| 9 | 8.00B | 3.8% | 2.60B |
| 10 | 8.24B | 3.0% | 2.36B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~17%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.