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SBUX Starbucks

restaurant · 2026-10-28

N/A
too hard · 74
Owner-earnings value$35.27
Price$103.04
Margin of safety -65.8%

Quality gate · 74/100

Returns on capital 30/30
Consistency 19.0/22
Margins / pricing power 6.4/16
Balance sheet 4.2/16
Cash conversion 9.6/10
Capital allocation 4.8/6

⚠ negative book equity · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 4.4x > 4x)

Median ROIC52.8%
Gross margin22.1%
Net debt / EBITDA4.4x
FCF conversion92%
Share count / yr-0.3%
Profitable years4/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)2.31B
Owner-earnings yield2.0%
Free-cash-flow yield3.1%
Growth used (normalized)4.9%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)25.0%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)9.4%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
12.42B 4.9%2.21B
22.53B 4.7%2.11B
32.64B 4.4%2.02B
42.75B 4.2%1.92B
52.87B 4.0%1.83B
62.98B 3.8%1.74B
73.08B 3.6%1.65B
83.19B 3.4%1.56B
93.29B 3.2%1.47B
103.39B 3.0%1.38B

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 5%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-28 74 $103.04 $35.27 -65.8% N/A
2026-10-14 74 $92.00 $34.06 -63.0% N/A
2026-09-30 74 $95.43 $34.10 -64.3% N/A
2026-09-16 74 $96.58 $35.51 -63.2% N/A
2026-09-02 74 $106.15 $36.65 -65.5% N/A
2026-08-19 74 $106.01 $37.20 -64.9% N/A
2026-08-05 74 $104.97 $37.53 -64.2% N/A
2026-07-22 74 $104.45 $26.07 -75.0% N/A
2026-07-09 74 $103.87 $26.07 -74.9% N/A
2026-07-02 74 $103.39 $26.07 -74.8% N/A
2026-06-25 74 $103.53 $26.07 -74.8% N/A
2026-06-23 74 $101.05 $26.07 -74.2% N/A