SJM J.M. Smucker Company (The)
too hard · 24
Owner-earnings value$70.45
Price$127.81
Margin of safety
-44.9%
Quality gate · 24/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 1% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.3x > 4x) · unprofitable in too many years
Median ROIC1.5%
Gross margin38.7%
Net debt / EBITDA5.3x
Share count / yr+0.7%
Profitable years1/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 457.30M |
| Owner-earnings yield | 3.3% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 11.6% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 2.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 16.5% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 466.44M | 2.0% | 427.93M |
| 2 | 476.28M | 2.1% | 400.88M |
| 3 | 486.86M | 2.2% | 375.95M |
| 4 | 498.22M | 2.3% | 352.95M |
| 5 | 510.39M | 2.4% | 331.72M |
| 6 | 523.43M | 2.6% | 312.11M |
| 7 | 537.39M | 2.7% | 293.97M |
| 8 | 552.31M | 2.8% | 277.19M |
| 9 | 568.27M | 2.9% | 261.65M |
| 10 | 585.32M | 3.0% | 247.24M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~17%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 2%.