SMCI Supermicro
fair · 51
Owner-earnings value$41.28
Price$32.94
Margin of safety
+25.3%
Quality gate · 51/100
Median ROIC12.8%
Gross margin10.8%
Net debt / EBITDA0.4x
FCF conversion-146%
Share count / yr+7.5%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 2.23B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 10.5% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -32.7% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 9.5% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 3.5% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 14.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.44B | 9.5% | 2.14B |
| 2 | 2.66B | 8.8% | 2.04B |
| 3 | 2.87B | 8.1% | 1.94B |
| 4 | 3.08B | 7.3% | 1.83B |
| 5 | 3.28B | 6.6% | 1.71B |
| 6 | 3.48B | 5.9% | 1.59B |
| 7 | 3.66B | 5.2% | 1.46B |
| 8 | 3.82B | 4.4% | 1.34B |
| 9 | 3.96B | 3.7% | 1.22B |
| 10 | 4.08B | 3.0% | 1.10B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~3%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 9%. Capped at market + 6pts.