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STZ Constellation Brands

beverage · 2026-10-22

N/A
too hard · 47
Owner-earnings value$163.01
Price$132.02
Margin of safety +23.5%

Quality gate · 47/100

Returns on capital 0/30
Consistency 11.0/22
Margins / pricing power 14.2/16
Balance sheet 6.1/16
Cash conversion 10/10
Capital allocation 5.7/6

⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 6% < 9%) · unprofitable in too many years

Median ROIC6.0%
Gross margin52.6%
Net debt / EBITDA3.4x
FCF conversion214%
Share count / yr-1.9%
Profitable years2/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)1.82B
Owner-earnings yield8.2%
Free-cash-flow yield8.2%
Growth used (normalized)0.0%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)-4.9%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)9.0%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
11.82B 0.0%1.67B
21.83B 0.3%1.54B
31.84B 0.7%1.42B
41.86B 1.0%1.32B
51.89B 1.3%1.23B
61.92B 1.7%1.14B
71.96B 2.0%1.07B
82.00B 2.3%1.00B
92.05B 2.7%946.04M
102.12B 3.0%893.97M

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~-5%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 0%.

History

DateQualityPriceValueMoSRating
2026-10-22 47 $132.02 $163.01 +23.5% N/A
2026-10-09 47 $123.63 $144.28 +16.7% N/A
2026-09-28 47 $113.63 $147.43 +29.7% N/A
2026-09-15 47 $125.00 $161.53 +29.2% N/A
2026-09-01 47 $130.62 $161.53 +23.7% N/A
2026-08-19 47 $131.00 $161.53 +23.3% N/A
2026-08-05 47 $131.42 $161.53 +22.9% N/A
2026-07-23 47 $132.08 $161.53 +22.3% N/A
2026-07-10 47 $132.44 $161.53 +22.0% N/A
2026-07-02 46 $136.88 $148.10 +8.2% N/A
2026-06-25 46 $143.02 $148.10 +3.6% N/A
2026-06-23 46 $143.38 $148.10 +3.3% N/A