SW Smurfit Westrock

materials · 2026-10-07

N/A

too hard · 35

Owner-earnings value$39.19

Price$42.39

Margin of safety -7.5%

Returns on capital 2.3/30

Consistency 15.4/22

Margins / pricing power 5.6/16

Balance sheet 2.6/16

Cash conversion 9.1/10

Capital allocation 0/6

⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 7% < 9%)

Median ROIC6.9%

Gross margin17.9%

Net debt / EBITDA3.0x

FCF conversion82%

Share count / yr+26.3%

Profitable years4/4

Owner earnings (TTM)	955.00M
Owner-earnings yield	4.3%
Free-cash-flow yield	4.6%
Growth used (normalized)	10.0%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)	11.9%
Terminal growth	3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)	9.4%

Yr	Owner earnings	Growth	PV
1	1.05B	10.0%	960.40M
2	1.15B	9.2%	958.99M
3	1.24B	8.4%	950.77M
4	1.34B	7.7%	935.86M
5	1.43B	6.9%	914.53M
6	1.52B	6.1%	887.18M
7	1.60B	5.3%	854.35M
8	1.67B	4.6%	816.65M
9	1.74B	3.8%	774.81M
10	1.79B	3.0%	729.60M

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~12%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.

Date	Quality	Price	Value	MoS	Rating
2026-10-07	35	$42.39	$39.19	-7.5%	N/A
2026-09-04	35	$45.26	$41.79	-7.7%	N/A
2026-08-04	35	$46.88	$41.79	-10.9%	N/A
2026-07-02	35	$46.09	$31.33	-32.0%	N/A
2026-06-25	35	$46.56	$31.33	-32.7%	N/A
2026-06-23	35	$44.36	$31.33	-29.4%	N/A