TSLA Tesla, Inc.
fair · 51
Owner-earnings value$10.29
Price$386.47
Margin of safety
-97.3%
Quality gate · 51/100
Median ROIC9.7%
Gross margin18.9%
Net debt / EBITDA-0.1x
FCF conversion56%
Share count / yr+5.8%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 3.80B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 0.2% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 0.4% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 5.2% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 25.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 13.8% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.93B | 5.2% | 3.45B |
| 2 | 4.13B | 5.0% | 3.19B |
| 3 | 4.32B | 4.7% | 2.93B |
| 4 | 4.51B | 4.5% | 2.69B |
| 5 | 4.70B | 4.2% | 2.47B |
| 6 | 4.89B | 4.0% | 2.25B |
| 7 | 5.07B | 3.7% | 2.06B |
| 8 | 5.25B | 3.5% | 1.87B |
| 9 | 5.42B | 3.2% | 1.70B |
| 10 | 5.58B | 3.0% | 1.54B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Net cash 1.8B credited to value (interest stripped from owner earnings to avoid double-counting). · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 5%.