TSN Tyson Foods

consumer_staples · 2026-10-27

N/A

too hard · 30

Owner-earnings value$49.54

Price$56.40

Margin of safety -12.2%

Returns on capital 0/30

Consistency 7.5/22

Margins / pricing power 4.4/16

Balance sheet 3.7/16

Cash conversion 9.2/10

Capital allocation 5.2/6

⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 3% < 9%)

Median ROIC3.3%

Gross margin6.1%

Net debt / EBITDA2.9x

FCF conversion84%

Share count / yr-0.7%

Profitable years3/4

Owner earnings (TTM)	1.12B
Owner-earnings yield	5.6%
Free-cash-flow yield	5.9%
Growth used (normalized)	0.7%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)	3.8%
Terminal growth	3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)	9.0%

Yr	Owner earnings	Growth	PV
1	1.13B	0.7%	1.03B
2	1.14B	1.0%	957.00M
3	1.15B	1.2%	888.75M
4	1.17B	1.5%	827.43M
5	1.19B	1.7%	772.27M
6	1.21B	2.0%	722.58M
7	1.24B	2.2%	677.77M
8	1.27B	2.5%	637.31M
9	1.30B	2.7%	600.74M
10	1.34B	3.0%	567.68M

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~4%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 1%.

Date	Quality	Price	Value	MoS	Rating
2026-10-27	30	$56.40	$49.54	-12.2%	N/A
2026-09-17	30	$52.12	$49.54	-4.9%	N/A
2026-08-10	30	$58.04	$49.54	-14.6%	N/A
2026-07-02	29	$58.43	$41.13	-29.6%	N/A
2026-06-25	29	$57.81	$41.13	-28.9%	N/A
2026-06-23	29	$57.42	$41.13	-28.4%	N/A