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TWLO Twilio

software · 2026-10-13

N/A
too hard · 40
Owner-earnings value$104.03
Price$282.66
Margin of safety -63.2%

Quality gate · 40/100

Returns on capital 0/30
Consistency 4.5/22
Margins / pricing power 13.4/16
Balance sheet 13.1/16
Cash conversion 3.3/10
Capital allocation 6/6

⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic -1% < 9%) · unprofitable in too many years

Median ROIC-1.3%
Gross margin48.5%
Net debt / EBITDA0.8x
Share count / yr-6.4%
Profitable years1/4

Moat & management

Owner-earnings inputs

Owner earnings (TTM)988.61M
Owner-earnings yield2.3%
Free-cash-flow yield2.3%
Growth used (normalized)9.8%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)25.0%
Terminal growth3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)11.3%

Projected owner earnings

YrOwner earningsGrowthPV
11.09B 9.8%975.01M
21.18B 9.1%954.98M
31.28B 8.3%928.85M
41.38B 7.5%897.13M
51.47B 6.8%860.39M
61.56B 6.0%819.30M
71.64B 5.3%774.60M
81.72B 4.5%727.07M
91.78B 3.8%677.52M
101.84B 3.0%626.73M

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.