TXT Textron

aerospace · 2026-10-20

N/A

too hard · 62

Owner-earnings value$78.65

Price$76.20

Margin of safety +3.2%

Returns on capital 7.0/30

Consistency 21.5/22

Margins / pricing power 5.9/16

Balance sheet 12.1/16

Cash conversion 10/10

Capital allocation 6/6

⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 9% < 9%)

Median ROIC8.6%

Gross margin17.8%

Net debt / EBITDA1.1x

FCF conversion101%

Share count / yr-5.5%

Profitable years4/4

Owner earnings (TTM)	759.00M
Owner-earnings yield	5.7%
Free-cash-flow yield	5.7%
Growth used (normalized)	4.8%
Market-implied growth (reverse DCF)	4.0%
Terminal growth	3.0%
Discount rate (hurdle)	9.2%

Yr	Owner earnings	Growth	PV
1	795.19M	4.8%	728.05M
2	831.54M	4.6%	697.05M
3	867.93M	4.4%	666.12M
4	904.19M	4.2%	635.36M
5	940.20M	4.0%	604.88M
6	975.80M	3.8%	574.78M
7	1.01B	3.6%	545.13M
8	1.05B	3.4%	516.04M
9	1.08B	3.2%	487.57M
10	1.11B	3.0%	459.80M

⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~4%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 5%.

Date	Quality	Price	Value	MoS	Rating
2026-10-20	62	$76.20	$78.65	+3.2%	N/A
2026-10-01	62	$76.20	$77.24	+1.4%	N/A
2026-09-14	62	$81.00	$81.37	+0.5%	N/A
2026-08-26	62	$81.80	$81.59	-0.3%	N/A
2026-08-07	62	$87.89	$81.59	-7.2%	N/A
2026-07-21	62	$90.79	$91.33	+0.6%	N/A
2026-07-02	62	$91.93	$91.33	-0.7%	N/A
2026-06-25	62	$86.54	$91.33	+5.5%	N/A
2026-06-23	62	$86.40	$91.33	+5.7%	N/A