VTR Ventas
too hard · 38
Owner-earnings value$48.71
Price$86.86
Margin of safety
-43.9%
Quality gate · 38/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 3% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.2x > 4x) · unprofitable in too many years
Median ROIC2.5%
Gross margin40.2%
Net debt / EBITDA5.2x
FCF conversion1176%
Share count / yr+5.9%
Profitable years2/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 1.09B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 2.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 2.5% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 10.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 24.6% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.20B | 10.0% | 1.10B |
| 2 | 1.31B | 9.2% | 1.10B |
| 3 | 1.42B | 8.4% | 1.10B |
| 4 | 1.53B | 7.7% | 1.08B |
| 5 | 1.63B | 6.9% | 1.06B |
| 6 | 1.73B | 6.1% | 1.03B |
| 7 | 1.82B | 5.3% | 998.09M |
| 8 | 1.91B | 4.6% | 957.39M |
| 9 | 1.98B | 3.8% | 911.52M |
| 10 | 2.04B | 3.0% | 861.35M |
Recent news
score · 8 articles
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⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.