VTRS Viatris
too hard · 26
Owner-earnings value$22.80
Price$17.62
Margin of safety
+29.4%
Quality gate · 26/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 1% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.1x > 4x) · unprofitable in too many years
Median ROIC0.7%
Gross margin34.8%
Net debt / EBITDA5.1x
Share count / yr-1.8%
Profitable years2/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 1.81B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 9.0% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 9.0% |
| Growth used (normalized) | -0.4% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | -6.4% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.2% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.80B | -0.4% | 1.65B |
| 2 | 1.80B | -0.0% | 1.51B |
| 3 | 1.81B | 0.3% | 1.39B |
| 4 | 1.82B | 0.7% | 1.28B |
| 5 | 1.84B | 1.1% | 1.19B |
| 6 | 1.87B | 1.5% | 1.10B |
| 7 | 1.91B | 1.9% | 1.03B |
| 8 | 1.95B | 2.2% | 965.55M |
| 9 | 2.00B | 2.6% | 907.60M |
| 10 | 2.06B | 3.0% | 856.29M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~-6%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits -0%. Capped at market + 6pts.