WELL Welltower
too hard · 37
Owner-earnings value$93.06
Price$229.87
Margin of safety
-59.5%
Quality gate · 37/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 2% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 6.2x > 4x)
Median ROIC1.7%
Gross margin38.9%
Net debt / EBITDA6.2x
FCF conversion333%
Share count / yr+12.4%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 2.92B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 1.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 1.8% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 10.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 25.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.21B | 10.0% | 2.95B |
| 2 | 3.51B | 9.2% | 2.95B |
| 3 | 3.81B | 8.4% | 2.94B |
| 4 | 4.10B | 7.7% | 2.90B |
| 5 | 4.38B | 6.9% | 2.85B |
| 6 | 4.65B | 6.1% | 2.77B |
| 7 | 4.90B | 5.3% | 2.68B |
| 8 | 5.12B | 4.6% | 2.57B |
| 9 | 5.31B | 3.8% | 2.45B |
| 10 | 5.47B | 3.0% | 2.31B |
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⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~25%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.