WM Waste Management
fair · 66
Owner-earnings value$154.43
Price$207.88
Margin of safety
-25.7%
Quality gate · 66/100
Median ROIC11.2%
Gross margin40.9%
Net debt / EBITDA3.5x
FCF conversion88%
Share count / yr-0.4%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 2.85B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 3.4% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 4.3% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 8.6% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 15.9% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3.10B | 8.6% | 2.84B |
| 2 | 3.34B | 7.9% | 2.81B |
| 3 | 3.59B | 7.3% | 2.77B |
| 4 | 3.83B | 6.7% | 2.71B |
| 5 | 4.06B | 6.1% | 2.64B |
| 6 | 4.28B | 5.5% | 2.55B |
| 7 | 4.49B | 4.9% | 2.46B |
| 8 | 4.68B | 4.2% | 2.35B |
| 9 | 4.85B | 3.6% | 2.23B |
| 10 | 5.00B | 3.0% | 2.11B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~16%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 9%.