WYNN Wynn Resorts
too hard · 45
Owner-earnings value$96.11
Price$75.13
Margin of safety
+27.9%
Quality gate · 45/100
⚠ negative book equity · sub-hurdle returns (median roic 8% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.5x > 4x)
Median ROIC8.0%
Gross margin40.7%
Net debt / EBITDA5.5x
FCF conversion186%
Share count / yr-2.8%
Profitable years3/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 448.88M |
| Owner-earnings yield | 5.8% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | 10.2% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 10.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 4.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.2% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 493.77M | 10.0% | 452.02M |
| 2 | 539.31M | 9.2% | 451.96M |
| 3 | 584.85M | 8.4% | 448.68M |
| 4 | 629.69M | 7.7% | 442.23M |
| 5 | 673.07M | 6.9% | 432.72M |
| 6 | 714.20M | 6.1% | 420.34M |
| 7 | 752.29M | 5.3% | 405.32M |
| 8 | 786.56M | 4.6% | 387.95M |
| 9 | 816.28M | 3.8% | 368.56M |
| 10 | 840.77M | 3.0% | 347.52M |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~4%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 10%.