XEL Xcel Energy
too hard · 32
Owner-earnings value$54.05
Price$70.55
Margin of safety
-23.4%
Quality gate · 32/100
⚠ sub-hurdle returns (median roic 6% < 9%) · over-levered (net debt/EBITDA 5.3x > 4x)
Median ROIC5.8%
Gross margin48.8%
Net debt / EBITDA5.3x
FCF conversion-144%
Share count / yr+4.3%
Profitable years4/4
Moat & management
Owner-earnings inputs
| Owner earnings (TTM) | 2.23B |
| Owner-earnings yield | 5.1% |
| Free-cash-flow yield | -17.5% |
| Growth used (normalized) | 0.0% |
| Market-implied growth (reverse DCF) | 6.3% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% |
| Discount rate (hurdle) | 9.0% |
Projected owner earnings
| Yr | Owner earnings | Growth | PV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.23B | 0.0% | 2.05B |
| 2 | 2.24B | 0.3% | 1.89B |
| 3 | 2.26B | 0.7% | 1.74B |
| 4 | 2.28B | 1.0% | 1.61B |
| 5 | 2.31B | 1.3% | 1.50B |
| 6 | 2.35B | 1.7% | 1.40B |
| 7 | 2.39B | 2.0% | 1.31B |
| 8 | 2.45B | 2.3% | 1.23B |
| 9 | 2.51B | 2.7% | 1.16B |
| 10 | 2.59B | 3.0% | 1.09B |
⚠ maintenance capex ≈ min(capex, D&A), capped at FCF · Price pays for ~6%/yr owner-earnings growth over 10y (reverse DCF); model credits 0%.