Wonderful businesses at a margin of safety
Low-cost nitrogen producer with shareholder-friendly management, priced as though the cycle never turns back up.
CF Industries makes nitrogen fertilizer (ammonia, urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate) and industrial nitrogen products such as diesel exhaust fluid, mainly at large North American plants. Natural gas is both its feedstock and its main cost, so it earns the spread between global nitrogen prices, which are set by high-cost producers in Europe and Asia, and cheap US gas. Demand comes from planted corn acreage and industrial use, and results swing hard with the commodity cycle.
Full moat, owner-earnings & quality breakdown →NVR, Inc. · retail
The most disciplined, capital-light homebuilder, shrinking its share count; the price implies no growth, while the business can likely compound mid-single digits.
Broadridge Financial Solutions · industrial
Toll collector on shareholder communications and trade processing; market prices 2% growth for a 7% compounder.
Accenture · software
Superb capital-light franchise, but AI clouds the hours-based model; price already assumes most plausible growth.
Northrop Grumman · aerospace
Irreplaceable defense franchise with a wide moat, but a price implying ~9% growth leaves little margin of safety.
The quality gate has scanned 514 of 503 names; these are the ones worth owning at the right price. See the full watchlist →
| Ticker | Sector | Quality | Moat | Price | Value | Margin of safety | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDDY | technology | wonderful · 82 | narrow moat | $103.36 | $146.96 | +42.2% | STRONG BUY |
| CF | materials | wonderful · 85 | narrow moat | $119.46 | $168.81 | +41.3% | STRONG BUY |
| LULU | apparel | wonderful · 95 | narrow moat | $94.09 | $132.62 | +41.0% | HOLD |
| INCY | pharma | good · 77 | no moat | $111.57 | $156.30 | +40.1% | HOLD |
| CTSH | software | wonderful · 81 | narrow moat | $62.47 | $86.92 | +39.1% | BUY |
| NVR | retail | wonderful · 88 | narrow moat | $5,733.12 | $7,764.83 | +35.4% | HOLD |
| ZTS | pharma | wonderful · 90 | wide moat | $75.29 | $101.30 | +34.5% | HOLD |
| DECK | apparel | wonderful · 97 | narrow moat | $82.82 | $110.65 | +33.6% | HOLD |
| SOLV | healthcare | good · 73 | narrow moat | $87.26 | $114.71 | +31.5% | BUY |
| PYPL | payments | wonderful · 85 | narrow moat | $56.10 | $73.33 | +30.7% | BUY |
| APA | energy | good · 76 | no moat | $47.37 | $60.89 | +28.5% | HOLD |
| ACGL | insurance | wonderful · 81 | narrow moat | $97.60 | $123.58 | +26.6% | BUY |
| ADBE | software | wonderful · 96 | no moat | $240.68 | $300.84 | +25.0% | HOLD |
| INTU | software | wonderful · 84 | wide moat | $310.44 | $388.00 | +25.0% | HOLD |
| AVY | materials | good · 73 | narrow moat | $171.84 | $213.01 | +24.0% | BUY |
| BR | industrial | good · 78 | wide moat | $168.26 | $207.93 | +23.6% | BUY |
| UBER | industrial | good · 69 | narrow moat | $69.29 | $84.06 | +21.3% | HOLD |
| CPRT | industrial | wonderful · 86 | wide moat | $26.27 | $31.42 | +19.6% | HOLD |
| IT | software | wonderful · 94 | narrow moat | $195.77 | $231.17 | +18.1% | HOLD |
| UHS | healthcare | good · 69 | narrow moat | $185.89 | $217.10 | +16.8% | HOLD |